You have a meeting with an important prospect. Instead of presenting data about you and your firm, you carefully elicit information throughout the conversation, so you can completely understand the prospect’s needs. You respond to questions succinctly. You believe you have demonstrated that you are ideally suited and should be retained. You leave the meeting confident that you have won over the prospect.
Subsequently, the prospect contacts you with the disappointing news; she has decided to go in another direction.
Chalk up your failure to the Dunning-Kruger effect.
A critical conclusion of this study is that “people systematically overestimate their ability and performance.” As a corollary to this finding, the researchers noted that people who make predictions do so with confidence that “far exceeds their accuracy rates.”